Decarbonization Pathways Program
The Decarbonization Pathways Program serves as the Carboun Institute's flagship effort supporting national roadmaps and policies for accelerated yet just energy transitions. Through scenario modeling and quantitative analysis, we examine how MENA economies can transition to low-carbon development while ensuring positive economic and social impacts.
Regional Context
The MENA region faces unique challenges as the only region globally with with a combination of rising carbon emissions, carbon intensity per capita, and economic carbon intensity. In 2023, the region accounted for 8% of global CO2 emissions while representing 6.3% of the world’s population, with Iran and Saudi Arabia ranking amongst the world’s largest global emitters.
Despite these challenges, the region has enormous renewable energy potential. Wind and solar capacities in 2023 were 33 times higher than 2008 levels, with total renewable capacity at 33 GW. If all current national targets are met, the regional renewable energy capacity could exceed 200GW by 2035. Five countries have committed to net-zero targets, including UAE and Oman (by 2050), and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain (by 2060).
The region is also emerging as a leader in green hydrogen development and has significant potential in green steel production, with Iran and Saudi Arabia among the world's largest producers of DRI steel.
To align with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the MENA region must increase its renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030—an 11.8-fold increase from 2022 levels. Our program seeks to provide evidence-based roadmaps to help achieve this ambitious transformation.
Our decarbonisation work covers the following three areas:
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Pathway Analysis
Develops frameworks to identify optimal country-specific decarbonization roadmaps that balance mitigation potential with social impacts. Analyzes emissions profiles, assesses transition options, evaluates policy mechanisms, and examines implementation challenges across power, transport, buildings, and industry sectors through collaborative approaches and targeted dialogue.
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Market Integration
Examines regional energy dynamics including finance, renewable integration, subsidy reform, cross-border infrastructure, and carbon pricing mechanisms. Provides evidence-based policy recommendations to governments while identifying how MENA economies can transition to low-carbon development while managing economic impacts and enabling cross-border cooperation.
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Progress Tracking
Develops regional decarbonization indices and benchmarks to evaluate national performance, encouraging healthy competition among countries. Creates baseline studies for priority countries, maps stakeholders, and expands expert networks to provide transparent reporting on the region's energy transition progress and identify policy gaps.
Showcase Project
MENA Green Industry
The MENA Green Industry sub-program at the Carboun Institute focuses on accelerating the industrial sector's transition toward sustainability across the Middle East and North Africa region. Through rigorous research and policy analysis, the program examines pathways for decarbonizing energy-intensive industries while maintaining economic competitiveness and creating new opportunities in the green economy.
Our work concentrates on key areas including industrial energy efficiency improvements, integration of renewable energy in industrial processes, development of green hydrogen and other low-carbon technologies, circular economy approaches for reducing industrial emissions, creation of green jobs and skills development, and regional industrial collaboration opportunities for emissions reduction.